New York City's mayoral showdown is more than just a local election – it's a battleground for ideas that could reshape the Big Apple. But here's where it gets intriguing: the polls are pointing to a progressive underdog pulling ahead, sparking debates about the city's future. Dive in as we break down the latest buzz on the Mamdani vs. Cuomo race, and uncover the details you need to make sense of it all.
The freshest polling data reveals Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani holding a solid 14.7-point edge over independent candidate Andrew Cuomo, based on an average compiled by RealClearPolitics.
Dated November 3, 2025
New York City's mayoral contest is sprinting toward the finish line, with early voting wrapping up and around five million eligible voters preparing to head to the polls on November 4 to decide who will steer the nation's largest metropolis (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/31/the-new-york-city-mayoral-race-in-five-maps-and-charts).
The New York City Board of Elections reports that 734,317 early ballots were submitted over the last nine days – that's over four times the amount seen in the 2021 mayoral elections. This surge highlights how energized people are about this year's choices.
Must-Read Articles
Here are three standout pieces to explore further:
- Supporters of Zohran Mamdani ramp up their efforts in the closing days: What's driving their passion for him right now? (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2025/10/30/zohran-mamdani-supporters-make-final-campaign-push-why-him-why-now)
- Is there still a shot for Andrew Cuomo to triumph in New York City's race against Zohran Mamdani? (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/28/does-andrew-cuomo-have-path-to-victory-in-nyc-race-against-zohran-mamdani)
- Meet Curtis Sliwa: The Republican contender in New York City's 2025 mayoral election. (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/31/who-is-curtis-sliwa-the-republican-in-new-york-citys-2025-mayoral-race)
Per the most recent RealClearPolitics compilation, Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic candidate, is capturing 45.8 percent of the vote, boasting a 14.7-point lead over Andrew Cuomo at 31.1 percent and a whopping 28.5-point gap ahead of Republican Curtis Sliwa at 17.3 percent.
Mamdani, affiliated with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), has ignited enthusiasm among progressive voters, who are attracted to his bold plans like providing universal free childcare, eliminating bus fares, and implementing a rent freeze for residents in roughly one million rent-stabilized apartments. Imagine the relief for families juggling work and kids – no more daycare costs, or for renters facing skyrocketing prices; these ideas promise real change, though they might raise eyebrows about funding and practicality.
New York City hosts mayoral elections every four years, capped at two terms per person. The incumbent, Democrat Eric Adams, who took office in January 2022, bowed out early this year amid scandals, including a federal bribery and conspiracy indictment that was eventually dismissed by a judge in April. This exit paved the way for a fresh, multifaceted race.
What makes this election stand out is its three-way clash, pitting progressive, mainstream, and conservative perspectives against each other in America's biggest city. And this is the part most people miss: could Mamdani's socialist leanings divide voters or unite them? It's a topic ripe for debate.
How reliable are these polls, anyway?
Recent surveys position Mamdani anywhere from three to 25 points in front of Cuomo, drawing from various polls aggregated by RealClearPolitics.
No poll is flawless. Pollsters strive to represent the broader electorate by sampling randomly, but factors like wording differences – such as handling undecided voters – introduce uncertainties. Typically, results come with a margin of error, meaning true support could vary by a few percentage points. By combining multiple polls, we can mitigate biases and get a clearer picture, helping even newcomers to elections understand the trends without getting lost in the numbers.
Breaking down the basics of polling
Groups like Emerson College, Marist College, and Quinnipiac University conduct ongoing surveys to track public opinion before primaries and the general election.
They employ random sampling techniques, reaching out via phone, text, or online platforms, and probe preferences, influential topics, and approval scores. Results always include details on margins of error and sample sizes, which are crucial for gauging how trustworthy the data is. Think of it as a snapshot – not perfect, but informative, especially for those just learning about civic engagement.
The mechanics of voting
Unlike the primaries that featured ranked-choice voting (RCV) – where voters rank candidates in order of preference – the general election opts for a winner-takes-all, first-past-the-post approach. The candidate with the highest vote count claims victory.
As of February, New York City boasts 5.1 million registered voters, with 65 percent identifying as Democrats and 11 percent as Republicans. Roughly 1.1 million are unaffiliated, and registration slammed shut on October 25, just a week before Election Day on November 4.
In the previous mayoral race, a bit over 1.1 million ballots were cast, representing about 21 percent of registered voters. Voter turnout can fluctuate based on enthusiasm – a key factor in such a polarized contest.
To cast a ballot, New Yorkers must meet these criteria:
- Hold U.S. citizenship
- Reside in New York City for at least 30 days
- Be 18 or older (though pre-registration is possible at 16 or 17, actual voting starts at 18)
- Not be incarcerated for a felony
- Not have a court ruling of mental incompetence
- Not be enrolled to vote in another location
When and where to vote
On November 4, polling places operate from 6am (that's 11:00 GMT) to 9pm (02:00 GMT on November 5).
Schedules can differ by site across the city, typically opening between 8am and 10am and closing from 4pm to 9pm.
Early voting ran from October 25 through November 2.
For a complete directory of early voting spots, check the New York City Board of Elections site (https://vote.nyc/).
As we wrap up, ponder this: Is Mamdani's progressive platform the fresh start New York needs, or does it risk alienating moderates? And could Cuomo's comeback story still unfold despite the polls? Share your thoughts in the comments – do you agree that DSA affiliations make or break a candidate? Let's discuss!
