Updated estimates for vaccine tracking

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Population estimates for AP and Telangana taken from the Election Commission

The Hindu maintained state-level immunization tracking based on data published in the COWIN database. The tracker estimates the% of the adult population (and among them, three age groups) who received at least the first dose and both doses.

Initially, we relied on census projections for the 2021 population in each state and extrapolated the Aadhaar saturation data for UTs and small states. Later we took the population estimates of an affidavit filed by the government in the Supreme Court on the target population that was to be vaccinated in each state.

We found that there were significant discrepancies between the Aadhaar saturation data, the Election Commission data on the adult population (population eligible to vote) and the data provided in the affidavit.

The discrepancies were quite high for Andhra Pradesh and Telangana in particular, suggesting that the information in the affidavit was inaccurate. For example, the estimate of the population aged 18 and over for Andhra Pradesh according to the UIADI was 395.2 lakh against 557.9 lakh in the affidavit and 404.9 lakh according to the CIS (at 15 January 2021). The corresponding numbers for Telangana were 277.7, 220.4 and 301.7 respectively.

Given these large variations for the two states, we modified the population estimate to reflect the CIS data on the voting population for them alone. Please see the updated tracker at thehindu.com/coronavirus/



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